December 5, 2025

The 45Z Advantage, Ethanol, and the Future of Biofuels

In this episode, we sit down with Jacqui Fatka, Lead Economist for Farm Supply and Biofuels at CoBank, to break down one of the most complicated and consequential topics in agriculture today, the evolving economics of ethanol, renewable diesel, and the clean fuel production credit known as 45Z. Jacqui brings decades of policy, market, and biofuels experience to the table, offering a grounded look at where we’ve been, where we stand, and how these incentives could reshape rural America over the next decade.

Jacqui walks us through the early days of the Renewable Fuel Standard, the massive impact it had on corn demand, and how policy continues to shape opportunity today. She explains why ethanol margins are strong, why lower corn and natural gas prices matter, and how the next wave of carbon policy could unlock new revenue streams for plants that can capture and store CO₂. Her insights cut through the noise, separating realistic upside from political uncertainty and explaining the real stakes for farmers, processors, and local economies.

The conversation digs into sustainable aviation fuel, early alcohol to jet pathways, and why U.S. producers face both enormous potential and real barriers. Jacqui outlines what’s holding SAF back, where capital is needed, and how partnerships across airlines, innovators, and ag supply chains are beginning to form. She also explains how carbon intensity scoring could ultimately bring premiums back to farmers, if data, verification, and policy align to reward on-farm practices that reduce emissions.

Jacqui closes with practical advice for both farmers and fuel producers. For farmers, the takeaway is simple: collect and protect your data, stay engaged with commodity groups, and keep an eye on emerging markets that value carbon performance. For producers, she stresses the importance of education, transparency, and collaboration with growers, especially as CO₂ pipelines, policy revisions, and new incentive structures take shape. This episode cuts straight to the truth about where biofuels are heading and what it will take to get this next chapter right.

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